Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Betting on Baseball, Overs All Night


Do you want to know what the over is in the past 3 days? 6-35! The over went 3-11 on Saturday. 1-14 on Sunday and 2-10 on Monday

I'm gonna bet every over tonight.

Monday, June 29, 2009

MLB Power Rankings

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/powerRankings


FOX SPORTS MLB POWER RANKINGS

RK Team REC CHG High/Low Comment
1 48-28 - 1/17

Hard to imagine getting too much better with Manny's return, but he should certainly prevent any fall-off.

Hard to imagine getting too much better with Manny's return, but he should certainly prevent any fall-off.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps
2 46-29 - 2/17

John Smolt'z first start was deceptively good. Just not sure how long he can stay in the low-to-mid 90s.

John Smolt'z first start was deceptively good. Just not sure how long he can stay in the low-to-mid 90s.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps
3 43-32 2 1/20

A-Rod's break could've been a derailment. Instead it's been an energizer.

A-Rod's break could've been a derailment. Instead it's been an energizer.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps
4 41-32 2 4/27

One of the game's best records despite Vlad having two home runs and Lackey's 5-plus ERA in just over 50 innings.

One of the game's best records despite Vlad having two home runs and Lackey's 5-plus ERA in just over 50 innings.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps
5 42-33 1 4/25

Magglio Ordonez ended 40-game home run drought with a blast last Thursday. If he could somehow get going ... wow.

Magglio Ordonez ended 40-game home run drought with a blast last Thursday. If he could somehow get going ... wow.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps
6 42-35 4 1/23

It's time for the rest of the East to be very worried. Yes, even you, Red Sox Nation.

It's time for the rest of the East to be very worried. Yes, even you, Red Sox Nation.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps
7 40-34 - 7/29

Still waiting on that one big bat. Pablo Sandoval is big, but that's not what we're talking about.

Still waiting on that one big bat. Pablo Sandoval is big, but that's not what we're talking about.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps
8 40-35 - 8/29

Rox fans getting grandiose visions of an '07-like run in the second half.

Rox fans getting grandiose visions of an '07-like run in the second half.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps
9 40-35 5 3/25

Seriously, the Yovani Gallardo for Cy Young talk needs to sprout wings.

Seriously, the Yovani Gallardo for Cy Young talk needs to sprout wings.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps
10 40-34 3 2/27

Josh Hamilton's return will be nice, but this team gets real scary if it can trade for a stud starter.

Josh Hamilton's return will be nice, but this team gets real scary if it can trade for a stud starter.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps














































































































































































edule | Apps

22 34-41 - 10/29

Although we think he's great, we're starting to think Nick Markakis may never develop into a 30-HR hitter.

Although we think he's great, we're starting to think Nick Markakis may never develop into a 30-HR hitter.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps


23 35-40 1 6/30

Ian Snell sent down, then promptly Ks 13 straight in a 17-strikeout performance in seven innings.

Ian Snell sent down, then promptly Ks 13 straight in a 17-strikeout performance in seven innings.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps


24 35-40 1 2/24

Gosh, where would Atlanta be without Tommy Hanson? ... Now and for the next five years.

Gosh, where would Atlanta be without Tommy Hanson? ... Now and for the next five years.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps


25 33-41 - 4/28

Not much else to get excited about over the summer months other than Adrian Gonzalez's HR total.

Not much else to get excited about over the summer months other than Adrian Gonzalez's HR total.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps


26 32-42 1 6/27

Zack Greinke posted 10th win on Sunday after starting June with eight.

Zack Greinke posted 10th win on Sunday after starting June with eight.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps


27 31-43 1 14/29

If the Cards didn't end up strongly pursuing Matt Holliday, that tells us the asking price is still way too high.

If the Cards didn't end up strongly pursuing Matt Holliday, that tells us the asking price is still way too high.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps


28 31-46 1 15/29

Did Cleveland just acquire its closer for the 2010 season and beyond for Mark DeRosa?

Did Cleveland just acquire its closer for the 2010 season and beyond for Mark DeRosa?

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps


29 30-46 1 9/29

Felipe Lopez hitting over .300 with little else to go along with it.

Felipe Lopez hitting over .300 with little else to go along with it.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps


30 22-51 - 26/30

After John Lannan, every member of the rotation has an ERA above 4.

After John Lannan, every member of the rotation has an ERA above 4.

Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy | Schedule | Apps


Thursday, June 25, 2009

Marlins, Orioles


Florida Vs Baltimore Over 9

Sean West threw his longest outing of the season 3 starts ago and has been bad ever since. 9.2 innings 14 hits and 9 runs with 6 walks in his last 2 starts. Fatigue might be a factor in his performance. Often times young pitches get "tired arms" after throwing more pitches than they are used to. Rich Hill is on the mound for the Orioles, He has been OK so far this year. However he has a lot of trouble getting deep into game. He has only gone 7 innings once this year. In 7 starts he has gone only 33 innings. That's less than 5 innings a start. He walks more than 3 batters per start as well. He does have a 3-1 record but pitches with a WHIP hovering around 1.60 don't usually end up over .500 at the end of the year. I think we should see a good amount of crooked numbers this game.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Chicago, White Sox, Dodgers, Man Ram

Chicago White Sox -116

Coming off a long road trip the White Sox are back home and back in action after a nice day off as well. They should have a good chance to get a W tonight with Hiroki Kuroda on the mound. He hasn't had a win since coming off the DL and gotten worse in every start. His last 2 starts lasted only 11.1 innigns and he gave up 9 runs on 15 hits. John Danks has been up and down all year but it looks like he is starting to put it together. His last 2 starts have been good. 14 innings pitched 3 ERs and 16 strikeouts with only 10 hits. The Dodgers have some issues going on behind the scenes tonight with the circus that is Man Ram playing in a minor league game. I dont think they come in fully focused and the Sox get the W.

Arizona, Texas



Arizona - 142

TEX: Harrison (4-4, 5.43 ERA)

ARI: Scherzer (4-4, 3.58 ERA)

Scherzer in his last 18 innings has only allowed 2 runs while striking out 17. He is 2-0 in those 3 games. His ERA in the month of June is under 1. Obviously he is starting to get what it takes me be a big time MLB pitcher.

Harrison has given up 15 runs in his last 3 starts totaling only 15 innings. He has really struggled since rattling off 4 straight wins. His BA against is over .300 on the road and the Rangers bats have been silent lately. They have only scored 10 runs in the last 4 games all being losses.

Allen Iverson Rap

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Fathers Day




Happy Fathers day to all you Dads out there. Special fathers day to some of these guys...

Shawn Kemp - 7 illegitimate kids by 6 women
Larry Johnson - 5 kids by 4 women
Jason Caffey - 8 kids by 7 women
Calvin Murphy - 14 illegitimate kids by 9 women
Travis Henry - 9 kids by 9 women. All of this before his 29th birthday
Willie Anderson - 9 illegitimate kids
Evander Holyfield - 9 illegitimate kids
Chad Johnson - 3 illegitimate kids
Elijah Dukes - 5 illegitimate kids, including one by a 17-year-old foster child.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Betting Systems, Underdogs

TeamW-LUnits
Rockies18-1311.1
Dodgers14-710.1
Rangers18-148.7
Phillies12-87.4
Angels15-155.2
Devil Rays10-85.1
Cardinals10-74.0
Pirates23-273.8
Marlins16-183.7
Red Sox8-63.2
Reds18-202.4
Braves8-82.4
Mets9-111.1
White Sox13-170.2
Brewers14-170.1
Blue Jays12-150.1
Mariners15-19-0.3
Diamondbacks12-17-1.2
Astros17-23-1.9
Padres18-26-1.9
Giants14-20-2.1
Royals15-21-2.1
Indians13-21-3.2
Tigers9-14-3.3
Yankees3-7-3.8
Orioles16-26-5.5
Athletics14-24-5.7
Twins12-21-6.0
Cubs1-9-7.8
Nationals12-36-20.4



If you bet the Dogs everyday and laid of the Nats you would be up over 15 units.


















Phillies, Joe Blanton


Phillies - 160


I am going to ride Blanton and the Phils today. Over his last 27 innings he has allowed only 6 earned runs. He is 2-0 in this 4 games and got terrible runs support for the other 2. Run support shouldn't be a problem in this game. This Phils are going up against Brad Mills - 1-8, 4.48 era, 1.51 WHIP 65-34 K/BBin 76.1 IP in 13 starts @ AAA Las Vegas. Not very good numbers for the kid and if it is any measure of how he will do in the bigs the Phillies should crush him. Only thing going for him is that he is a lefty.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009


Detroit Tigers
-125
Edwin Jackson #36 SP

2009 STATS
ERAW-LSOWHIP
2.246-3651.03


The Tigers are looking to get back even in the series with the Cardinals. They bring Jackson to the hill who his finally had his break out year. Dating back to May 5th, he has made 7 starts allowing 9 ER's in 50.1 innings. That's over 7 innings a game and barely over 1 run per game.

The Tigers will be facing...
Todd Wellemeyer #37 SP

2009 STATS
ERAW-LSOWHIP
5.505-6461.61

Wellemeyer has been up and down all year. He ave up 11 runs in his last 2 starts combined. His ERA at home is over 5.00 and his ERA in June over 7.00. He has give up 14 runs in the month in only 18 innings while allowing a batting overage over .300.

Tampa Bay Rays +117

Jeff Niemann #34 SP

2009 STATS
ERAW-LSOWHIP
4.125-4421.45


Neimann had a terrible start his last time out but he got a weeks rest in between starts and it obviously effected him. In his previous six starts, he allowed more than two runs only once. including a CG shut out against KC. Look for him to have a better outing tonight. Even including that outing and he has only allowed 4 or more runs 3 times this year so he should be able to keep them in the game even if they don't have the lead.

Jorge De La Rosa is 2-3 in his last 5 starts raising his ERA from 3.16 to 5.08. He had great run support 1 of the W's and the other he pitched well. He only went 6 innings or more in 2 of those games which means he had to turn it over the Rockies bullpen that is 15 out of 16 NL teams with an ERA just under 5.

  • Rockies are 0-4 in De La Rosas last 4 starts as a home favorite.
  • Rockies are 0-5 in De La Rosas last 5 home starts.
  • Rockies are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. American League East.
  • Rays are 6-1 in Niemanns last 7 starts.
  • Rays are 6-1 in Niemanns last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Rays are 5-1 in Niemanns last 6 road starts.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Sunday!!


Only 1 loss this week so far...

Chicago Cubs
Ted Lilly
-133


Lilly has been superb in his last three outings, allowing a combined three runs (two earned) over 20.2 innings, lowering his ERA to 3.00 in the process. The Cubs are looking to stop the sweep from the Twins with this win. The Twins starter Scott Baker has been good his last 2 starts but I don't look for that to continue. He had as many strikeouts in his last 2 games as he did in the 4 games prior to that. One of the games was against Oakland who is the worst hitting team in the AL. I look for a low scoring game such as a 4-2 type games with the Cubs coming out ahead.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Friday....

Well if you followed it has been a good week, try to cap it off today with a W....

I am on...

Det -140
Detroit Tigers
- Rorcello


Rick Porcello #48 SP
2009 STATS
ERAW-LSOWHIP
3.986-4361.30

The Tigers are 7 - 4 overall in Rick's starts. In his last 7 starts he has only allowed more than 2 ER's 2 times, those 2 times were 3 and 4 respectively. He should be able to handle a struggling Pirates lineup and keep them in check.

The Pirates starter...

Ian Snell #45 SP
2009 STATS
ERAW-LSOWHIP
5.541-6451.60

Snell has given up 14 runs in his last 3 starts while walked 10 as well. He hasn't got a win since March 18th. The Pirates are 3 - 9 in his starts this year.

The Tigers should not have a problem putting up a few runs in this game and getting the W.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Late added play...

Sorry for adding this play so late but here ya go....

Yankees and Red Sox over 11


Wang's numbers speak for this self really.
2009 STATS
ERAW-LSOWHIP
14.460-3142.57

This might be his last chance in the rotation, I expect another shelling like normal with him.

Wakefield is historically bad against the Yankees. In the last 3 years his ERA is over 6.50 in 10 games started and just barely over 50 innings. 5 of the Yankees started have career BA's over .270 against him.

Here are the lineups as well...

Red Sox
1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
2. J.D. Drew, RF
3. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
4. Jason Bay, LF
5. Mike Lowell, 3B
6. David Ortiz, DH
7. Mark Kotsay, CF
8. Nick Green, SS
9. George Kottaras, C
-- Tim Wakefield, RHP

Yankees
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Robinson Cano, 2B
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Hideki Matsui, DH
8. Nick Swisher, RF
9. Melky Cabrera, CF
-- Chien-Ming Wang, RHP

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

We are going to stick with the Reds theme for the 2nd day in a row.

Once again Vegas showing a lot of respect to the Nats who are on pace to lose 110+ games.

Reds -115
Harang (5-6, 4.11 ERA)




Harang has lost his last 2 decision and I look for that streak to break tonight with a W over the Nationals. They are the worst team in baseball for a reason.
  • Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games.
  • Nationals are 2-8 in their last 10 Wednesday games.

Not that those 2 stats are huge factors in my decision I just think they are interesting. Now on to Martis, they guy that will be opposite of Harang on the rubber. He won his first 5 decisions and has yet to win another one over his last 4 starts. He has given up 5 or more in 3 of the last 4 of hose starts. His last start was a good one against the Mets where he gave up 1 run but didn't get past the 5th and turned it over to their Bullpen which is one of the worst in the league with an ERA over 5.00. Pitchers with a WHIP over 1.40 eventually come back to earth and I don't see him earning the W tomorrow. 3-1 since the start of the Blow, keep it rolling to get paid on Friday!!

Monday, June 8, 2009

Great start to the week with the win last night. Thank you Derek Jeter!

Today most teams are back in action after a travel day. My pick for the today is:

Reds -111
P- Johnny Cueto #47 SP
2009 STATS
ERAW-LSOWHIP
2.435-3531.04

This is a steal of a line in my opinion. Not to often will you get Cueto under -140 let alone at -120. Dating back to May 1st, Zimmerman has allowed 5 or more runs in 5 of his 7 starts. One of those was a 2 ER game against a terrible hitting Giants teams. His only 2 wins on the season were in his 1st two starts. Since then the youngster has been welcomed to the league in a big way. Cueto has had some bad luck in 2 out of his last 3 starts, the other start he got some help and got the W. Over has last 20 innings he has allowed 6 ER. No reason to think they Reds can't tack on a few run for him tonight. I expect a low scoring game possibly even a shut out for the Reds. There is a reason he is in the Top 5 in the NL is ERA, he should have no trouble shutting down the Nats.

Here are some other stats to look at:
  • Reds are 26-9 in their last 35 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Reds are 6-0 in Cuetos last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Reds are 5-1 in Cuetos last 6 road starts.
  • Reds are 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Reds are 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
  • Reds are 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Reds are 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.

  • Nationals are 1-4 in Zimmermanns last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Nationals are 1-4 in Zimmermanns last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Nationals are 0-4 in Zimmermanns last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Nationals are 0-5 in Zimmermanns last 5 starts.
  • Nationals are 0-5 in Zimmermanns last 5 starts on grass.
  • Nationals are 0-4 in Zimmermanns last 4 home starts.
  • Nationals are 0-5 in Zimmermanns last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Nationals are 0-4 in Zimmermanns last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Manic Monday...

No much action on Monday but one game I do like is the Yankees and Rays.

Yankees -1.5 (+119)



Sonnanstine has given up 16 ER in his last 4 starts, only going over 6 innings once. The Yankees have been hitting the ball a lot better since the return of A-Rod and I like them in this spot to pounce on the Rays. Pettitte is coming off a bad start in Texas and looking to rebound here. He has received great run support through most of the year and I can see the Yanks give him at least 6 or 7 runs here.

Good luck this week and lets try to get paid on Friday.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Blemont Day

Under 9 -110
Dodgers Vs Phillips


Joe Blanton bring in a career 3.32 ERA against the Dodgers. Hiroki Kuroda is sporting a 1.39 ERA aganist the Phillies for his career and his ERA is under 3 this year. He has no allowed more than 2 runs yet this year in 2 starts. He has been great since coming off the DL.

  • Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 during game 3 of a series.
  • Under is 7-1 in Phillies last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 games as a road underdog.
  • Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 games as an underdog.
  • Under is 6-1-1 in Phillies last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Under is 6-1-1 in Phillies last 8 road games.
  • Under is 13-3-1 in Phillies last 17 overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

  • Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 games following a win.
  • Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 vs. National League East.
  • Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
  • Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 games as a favorite.
  • Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 overall.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Friday's Pick...

Royals -145 (1 Unit)

I like Greinke to continue his hot start against the slumping Bluejays.
  • Royals are 4-0 in Greinkes last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Royals are 5-0 in Greinkes last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Royals are 12-3 in Greinkes last 15 starts.
  • Royals are 8-2 in Greinkes last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
  • Royals are 4-1 in Greinkes last 5 starts as a road favorite.
  • Royals are 8-2 in Greinkes last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
No reason to think this does not hold true for Friday's game as well. They will be facing Romero who hasn't gotten out of the 5th inning in his last 2 starts allowing 5 runs in both those starts.

  • Blue Jays are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Blue Jays are 3-13 in their last 16 games as an underdog.
  • Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
  • Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
  • Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.

Greinke
2009 STATS
ERAW-LSOWHIP
1.108-1880.90

The Hammer

I will bring you a solid pick everyday of the week and help break your bookie. Every gambler and handicapper claims to be the best at this and at that. I will not do that I will put in the legwork for you and do research for a good pick everyday. I have had much success with baseball in the past and this season has been no different. I won't have a 5 star or 10 start or lock of the century play or any of that crap. I bet the same amount of units on every play. I will have different posts about money management and different types of systems I use as well as my daily picks. Looking forward to bringing everyone home some money every week.

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